How many GTA VI pre-orders are there? What Take-Two, Xbox and analysts say

Everyone agrees GTA VI is selling. Nobody who knows the number has said it.

Verdict: Confirmed: Take-Two's CEO called the pre-orders "unprecedented", "astonishing" and "astronomical" in August and wouldn't give a figure. Inference, Moderate confidence: about 4.4 million pre-orders by mid-August, by Sensor Tower's estimate. Inference, High confidence: pre-orders lean heavily to PS5. Confirmed: Xbox says GTA VI is breaking its pre-order records. Speculation, Low confidence: 48 million copies at launch.

How many people have pre-ordered GTA VI?

Officially, nobody outside Take-Two and the platforms knows. On Take-Two's earnings call on 7 August, CEO Strauss Zelnick was asked for a number and declined: "I'm not gonna tell you how many units we've sold, or we're selling, but I'd say that the sales are unprecedented and astonishing and astronomical". Take-Two's written results don't mention pre-orders at all.

The most-quoted figure is an estimate. The market-intelligence firm Sensor Tower put pre-orders at about 4.38 million, worth about $429 million, by mid-August, then around 4.6 million before the Extended Look on 27 August, with daily pre-orders jumping more than 500% around the premiere. Sensor Tower builds these from panel data and modelling. They're the best outside numbers available, and they can't be checked. Inference, Moderate confidence.

Are GTA VI pre-orders higher on PS5 or Xbox?

PS5, by a wide margin, as far as anyone outside Sony and Microsoft can tell. Sensor Tower's estimate split them 77% PlayStation, 23% Xbox. In late September The Verge's Tom Warren reported pre-orders "heavily skewed toward PS5". Xbox didn't dispute the split: its Chief Strategy Officer, Matthew Ball, replied that GTA VI is "breaking records for XBOX" and that Xbox's share of pre-orders matches "our share of the console market". PS5 has sold roughly three times as many consoles as Xbox Series X|S, so both statements can be true at once.

Which GTA VI edition are people pre-ordering?

Mostly the $99.99 Ultimate Edition, by Sensor Tower's estimate: close to 90% of pre-orders. TweakTown notes that's far above the usual share for a premium edition. Rockstar hasn't commented on the split.

How many copies will GTA VI sell at launch?

Forecasts run from about 30 million to 48 million, and none is a measurement. The top figure comes from Piper Sandler analyst James Callahan, whose model multiplies weekly visitors to the r/GTA6 subreddit by ratios from past launches: about 48 million, up from more than 45 million in June. The same note puts Piper Sandler's own formal launch estimate near 30 million and the investor consensus near 40 million, and it doesn't define "launch". Speculation, Low confidence.

Take-Two's only number is its full-year outlook of $8.0 to $8.2 billion in net bookings, reiterated in August with GTA VI's 19 November launch built in.

When will we know how many copies GTA VI sold?

When Take-Two chooses to say. Its next quarterly results, expected in early November, come before launch; the first to cover launch sales will come in 2027. Until then every number is an estimate, and the honest answer to "how many?" is "a lot, officially".

What changes this: Take-Two, Sony or Microsoft publishing pre-order or sales figures, or a new Sensor Tower estimate.