Briefing Business Published New
Are GTA VI pre-orders really the biggest ever? What Sensor Tower's 148% shows
Are GTA VI pre-orders really the biggest ever? Sensor Tower says GTA VI is 148% ahead of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 at the same point before launch, with about 6.45 million digital pre-orders and $630 million in the US. What the comparison covers, what it leaves out, and what nobody has confirmed.
GTA VI is outselling the biggest recent launches, according to one analytics firm. This page reads that comparison closely: who made it, what it counts, and what it leaves out.
Verdict: Inference, Moderate confidence. Sensor Tower estimates GTA VI's US digital pre-orders are 148% ahead of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2's at the same point before launch, and puts the total at about 6.45 million copies and $630 million. Confirmed: those figures cover US digital sales only, and neither Rockstar nor Take-Two has confirmed any number.
Are GTA VI pre-orders bigger than Call of Duty's?
By Sensor Tower's estimate, yes, by a wide margin. On 20 October the analytics firm published a comparison of GTA VI against 2022's Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, Diablo 4, Hogwarts Legacy and Marvel's Spider-Man 2. At the same distance from launch, GTA VI's pre-orders were 148% ahead of Modern Warfare 2's.
That benchmark is a tough one. GamesIndustry.biz notes that Modern Warfare 2 had more than double Diablo 4's pre-orders 45 days out, and it had the biggest opening weekend in Call of Duty's history at the time, $800 million. The games on the chart are Sensor Tower's choice, and the chart's values aren't published in text, so the 148% is a headline gap rather than a figure you can rebuild. Inference, Moderate confidence.
How many GTA VI pre-orders are there now?
About 6.45 million in the US, worth about $630 million, in the latest estimate we've seen. Sensor Tower's split is 4.8 million copies and $468 million on PS5, and 1.66 million and $162 million on Xbox, roughly 74% to 26%. On 13 October the same firm had 6.08 million and $594 million, so the newer figure is about 370,000 copies higher. TweakTown suggests the Launch Trailer helped; neither it nor GamesIndustry.biz says when the newer figure was taken.
| Sensor Tower estimate (US digital pre-orders) | 13 October | Later update, reported 20 October |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-orders | 6.08 million | 6.45 million |
| Revenue | about $594 million | about $630 million |
| PS5 | 74% | 4.8 million copies, $468 million |
| Xbox | 26% | 1.66 million copies, $162 million |
| Versus Modern Warfare 2 at the same point | not stated | 148% ahead |
Estimates, not sales. Sources: GamesIndustry.biz and TweakTown (claims 0689 to 0691).
The August estimate was 4.4 million, so the total has risen by about two million since. The PlayStation share fell from 77% to 74% over that time. The vast majority of pre-orders are for the $100 Ultimate Edition, and the earlier estimate put that near 90%. The pre-order numbers briefing has the full history and the forecasts.
What do the numbers leave out?
A lot, and that is the main caveat. The comparison counts digital pre-orders in the United States only. It leaves out boxed copies bought at retailers, which Rockstar's physical edition makes possible as a download code in a box, and every country outside the US. Those are real pre-orders, so the true total is higher than 6.45 million, but by an amount nobody outside Take-Two and the platforms can see.
It also counts orders, not completed sales, and the revenue is an estimate built from prices; Sensor Tower hasn't published how it models either.
Has Take-Two confirmed any of it?
No. Neither Rockstar nor Take-Two has given a pre-order figure. On the August earnings call, CEO Strauss Zelnick called sales "unprecedented and astonishing and astronomical" and declined to give units. Sensor Tower's numbers are the best outside estimate, built from panel data and modelling, and they can't be checked.
So are they the biggest ever?
Probably the biggest of the games Sensor Tower compared, at this point before launch, in the US digital market. "Biggest ever" for all games, regions and formats isn't something this data can show. The first official numbers will most likely come from Take-Two's results: the next quarterly report is expected in early November, before launch, and the first to cover launch sales comes in 2027.
What changes this: Sensor Tower publishing the chart values and its method; a Take-Two, Sony or Microsoft pre-order figure; or Take-Two's November results. Each would be logged here.
Sources
References
Public sources used across this briefing. A source can support several claims and is listed once per role.
- GamesIndustry.biz Reputable outlet https://www.gamesindustry.biz/sensor-tower-data-shows-the-yawning-gap-between-gta-6-and-everything-else
- TweakTown Reputable outlet https://www.tweaktown.com/news/114187/gta-6-has-already-made-rockstar-more-than-half-a-billion-dollars/index.html
Evidence
Claim record
This briefing is built on 4 classified public-record claims tracked by Vice Atlas — each one graded on its own, and re-graded as official sources land.
Open the claim record — 4 claims
- Confirmed High confidence
Sensor Tower's GTA VI pre-order figures cover digital sales in the United States only: they leave out boxed copies and other countries, and neither Rockstar nor Take-Two has confirmed any pre-order number.
- Inference Moderate confidence
Sensor Tower estimated on 13 October 2026 that GTA VI had been pre-ordered 6.08 million times in digital US sales, worth about $594 million, with 74% on PlayStation and 26% on Xbox and the vast majority for the $100 Ultimate Edition.
- Inference Moderate confidence
A later Sensor Tower estimate, reported on 20 October 2026, puts GTA VI at 6.45 million digital pre-orders and about $630 million, with 4.8 million copies and $468 million on PS5 and 1.66 million copies and $162 million on Xbox.
- Inference Moderate confidence
Sensor Tower says GTA VI's US digital pre-orders are 148% ahead of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2's at the same point before launch, and well ahead of Diablo 4, Hogwarts Legacy and Spider-Man 2.
